钢价估值中性 逢回调做多为主

1.QUANNIANCUGANGCHANLIANGZENGFUDIYUQUNIAN，GAOLUZHANGLIUCHENGCHANLIANGDANXINGXIAO，GUANZHUDUANLIUCHENGDIANLUCHANLIANGBIANHUA

JINNIAN1-4YUEFEN，SHOUYIQINGYINGXIANG，GANGCHANGKAIGONGBUZU，4YUECUGANGCHANLIANGDANGYUETONGBIWEIZENG0.2%，5YUEFENYIQINGDEDAOJIBENKONGZHI，QUANGUOFUCHANFUGONG，GANGCHANGCHANLIANGXUNSUSHANGSHENG，DANGYUECHANLIANGTONGBIZENGZHANG4.2%，LEIJITONGBIZENGZHANG0.9%。6YUEFENDERIJUNSHENGTIECHANLIANGCHIXUCHUANGXINGAO，YUEJUNSHENGTIECHANLIANGGAODA246.5WANDUN，YUEHUANBIZENGZHANG2.9%。CONGGANGCHANGCHANNENGLIYONGLVHELIRUNDENGQINGKUANGZONGHELAIKAN，DANGQIANXUQIUJINRUJIJIEXINGDANJI，GAOLUJIANXIUZENGDUO，CHANNENGLIYONGLVJIANDINGXIAXING，RIJUNSHENGTIECHANLIANGGAOWEIXIAJIANG，6YUEDEDANGYUECHANZHIHUOYIDADAONIANNEIFENGZHI。CONGLINIANCHANLIANGQINGKUANGKAN，7-8YUEFENHE11-12YUEFENDOUSHIXUQIUJIJIEXINGDANJI，CHULELIRUNTEBIEHAODENIANFENWAI，CHANLIANGYEHUIGENSUIXUQIUJIJIEXINGZOURUO。SUOYIWOMENYUGU7-8YUECHANLIANGJIANGCHENGJIJIEXINGXIAJIANGTAISHI，TONGSHIKAOLVJINNIANDIANLUCHENGBENGAOQI，YUJIXIAJIANGFUDUYAOGAOYUQUNIAN。9-10YUESHIXIABANNIANXUQIUGAOFENG，BUGUANSHIGANGCHANGHAISHIXIAYOUJIANZHUYE，JIANGJIASUGANGONGCHONGYEJI。ER11-12YUEFENCHANLIANGQUJUEYUSHICHANGDUIJIAGEDEYUQI，KAOLVZHENGFUDUIFANGDICHANZHANGZHOUQIGUANKONGDEZHENGCEJIDIAO，YIJIJINNIANGANGCAIDEGAOKUCUNSHISHI，YUJIJINNIANDONGJICHANLIANGJIANGGENSUIJIJIEXINGXIAJIANG。

JINNIANFEIGANGJIAGEYIZHIJIANTING(ZHUYAOYUANYINSHIJINNIANZHIZAOYEKAIGONGBUZU，SHIDEFEIGANGHUISHOUYOUXIAN)，DIANLULIRUNGAOQI，DANGQIANDIANLUCHENGBENGAODA3680YUAN，BUFENDIQUCHUYUKUISUNZHUANGTAI，DIANLUKAIGONGYIJINGCHUYUXIAHUATAISHI。DANGQIANDIANLUKAIGONGLVWEI73.77%，HUANBIXIAJIANG0.67%，TONGBIXIAJIANG6%；CHANNENGLIYONGLV60.4%，HUANBIXIAJIANG2.8%，TONGBIXIAJIANG11.5%。GENJUQUNIANDIANLUJIANCHANFUDU，CHANNENGLIYONGLVXIAJIANG20GEBAIFENDIAN，JIANGYINGXIANGQUANGUORIJUNCHANLIANGXIAJIANG4%。

ZONGHEZHANGLIUCHENGHEDUANLIUCHENGQINGKUANGKAN，ZHANGLIUCHENGGANGCHANGCHANLIANGJIANGGENSUIXUQIUDEJIJIEXINGBODONGERBODONG，QUANNIANCHANLIANGDANXINGJIAOSHAO；ERDIANLUCHANLIANGJIANGGENSUILIRUNBIANDONGERBIANHUA，DANGQIANBUFENDIQUDIANLUCHUYUKUISUNZHUANGTAI，YUJIHOUQICHANLIANGJIANGJIANDINGXIAHUA。ZHANGLIUCHENGGAOLUJIANXIUDIEJIADUANLIUCHENGLIRUNSHOUSUOZHUDONGJIANCHAN，7-8YUEFENCHANLIANGSHOUSUOFUDUKENENGJIANGGAOYUWANGNIAN。WOMENYUGUQUANNIANCUGANGCHANLIANGBAOCHIZHENGZENGZHANG，DANZENGSUDIYUQUNIAN。

2.XUQIUDUANCUNRENXING，QUANNIANHAOGANGLIANGTONGBICHIPING

LUOWENGANGXIAYOUXUQIUZHUYAOSHIFANGDICHANHEJIJIAN。FANGDICHANDEXINKAIGONGMIANJIHESHIGONGMIANJIJIANGZHIJIEJUEDINGHAOGANGLIANG。ERFANGDICHANDEXIAOSHOUMIANJISHIXIANXINGZHIBIAO，XIAOSHOUHUIKUANJUEDINGFANGDICHANTOUZIE，CONGERYINGXIANGXINKAIGONGHESHIGONGTILIANG。

XINGUANYIQINGYINGXIANGXIAGUONEIJINGJIXIAXINGYALIDA，WEIZHICHIJINGJIFUSU，GUONEIHUOBIZHENGCEKUANSONG，SHANGBANNIANFANGDICHANXIAOSHOUQINGKUANGJINGLILETINGZHI-ZHONGQIZENGZHANGDEGUOCHENG。1-2YUEYOUYUYIQINGFANGDICHANSHICHANGQUANMIANTINGZHI，XIAOSHOUMIANJILEIJITONGBIJIANG40%。HOUSUIZHEQUANGUOLOUSHIZHUBUFUGONGFUCHAN，DICHANXIAOSHOUZHIXIANHUISHENG。5YUELEIJITONGBIJIANGFUYISHOUZHAIZHI12.3%。5YUEDANGYUE，QUANGUOSHANGPINFANGXIAOSHOUGUIMODAFUZENGLIANG，TONGBIZENGSUYOUFUZHUANZHENGQIECHUANGJINYINIANYILAIZENGSUXINGAO，TONGBIZENG9.7%。YINGXIANGFANGDICHANXIAOSHOUZHUYAOYOULIANGGEFANGMIAN，YIGESHILILV；LINGYIGEJIUSHIFANGJIA。LILVFANGMIAN，1-4YUEHUOBISHICHANGLILVCHIXUXIAXING(shibor：1ZHOUZUIDIXIADIEZHI1.481)，5YUEFENHUOBIBIANJISHOUJIN，SHICHANGLILVKAISHIHUISHENG(DANGQIAN1.794)，MUQIANYIRANCHUZAIJIAODISHUIPING。JINGJIZHENGTICHUYUFUSUDEBEIJINGXIA，HUOBIZHENGCEJINYIBUSHOUJINDEKENENGXINGBUDA，DILILVHUANJINGWEIDICHANXIAOSHOUTIGONGLEYOULIZHICHENG。QICI，CONGFANGJIADEQINGKUANGLAITONGBUYINZHENGDICHANXIAOSHOUQINGKUANG(YIBANXIAOSHOUHAO，FANGJIAZHANG)，YI、ER、SANXIANCHENGSHI5YUEERSHOUFANGFANGJIAHUANBIFENBIESHANGSHENG1.1%、0.4%、0.3%。SHUOMINGDICHANXIAOSHOULIANGJIASHUANGSHUANGSHANGSHENG。

ZONGSHANG，YUJIKUANHUOBIBEIJINGXIA，DICHANXIAOSHOUJIANGCHIXUHUISHENG，DANQUANNIANZENGSUYUJIDIYUQUNIAN，GENJUKEERRUIYANJIUYUCETONGBIXIADIE5%ZUOYOU。CONGQUANNIANDICHANXIAOSHOUTONGBIXIAHUABEIJINGXIA，JINNIANDICHANXINGYETOUZIYIYUANSHIFOUNENGZHONGYAN2018NIANDEGANGONGXIANXIANG？KAOLVDAO“LIANGHUI”ZHENGFUGONGZUOBAOGAOMINGQUETICHUWENZHUJINGJIJIBENPAN，JIZHONGJINGLIZHUAHAO“LIUWEN”、“LIUBAO”，HUOBIZHENGCEZHENGTIWENJIANPIANJIJI，QIEDANGQIANFANGQIRONGZIHUANJINGWEIWEN，CHENGBENJIEGOUXINGXIAJIANG，DIEJIAXIAOSHOUQUHUAXINGSHILIANGHAO，YUJIDUOSHUQIYEXIABANNIANRENGHUIJIAJINKAIGONG、JIAKUAITUIPAN，MIBUCIQIANYIQINGDAILAIYEJIFUMIANYINGXIANG，YEHUICIJIXIABANNIANXINKAIGONGJUEDUILIANGWENBUZENGZHANG，WEICHIGAOWEI。DANSHOU2019NIANXIABANNIANJISHUJIAOGAOYINGXIANG，YUJIXINKAIGONGMIANJITONGBIZENGFURENGJIANGBAOCHIDIWEIBODONG，YINGXIANGQUANNIANDICHANYONGGANGTONGBIXIAHUA。

JIJIANZUOWEINIZHOUQIDIAOJIEDEZHUYAOSHOUDUAN，CONG2019NIANZENGSUHUANMANHUISHENG，JINNIANSHOUYIQINGYINGXIANG，ZHENGFUCIJIJIJIANLIDUJIADA。5YUE，JIJIANTOUZIDANGYUETONGBIGAODA10.9%，1-5YUELEIJITONGBIJIANGFUYESHOUZHAIZHI-3.3%。JINNIANZHENGFUDUOCUOSHIBAOZHANGJIJIANFAZHANZIJIN：SHOUXIANSHITIGAOZHUANXIANGZHAIEDU，1-5YUEYIFAXINGDEXINZENGZHUANXIANGZHAIGAODA2.25WANYI(QUANNIAN2.75WANDUOYIEDU)，XIABANNIANRENGYOU1.5WANYIZHUANXIANGZHAIDAIFAXING；QICISHIKUODAGANGGAN，KUODAZUOWEIXIANGMUZIBENJINDEFANWEI。XIANGMUSHOUYIZHUANXIANGZHAIHETOUXIANGJIJIANDETEBIEGUOZHAIJUNKEYONGZUOXIANGMUZIBENJIN，QIEGULITIGAOZIBENJINBILI，ZHEIJIANGJINYIBUQIAODONGJIJIANTOUZILIDU。CONG1-5YUESHUJUKANYOUJIEJIN70%YONGYUGUANGYIJIJIAN，YUANYUANCHAOGUO2019NIANBUDAO30%SHUIPING。WOMENYUJIZHUANXIANGZHAIZHONGYONGYUGUANGYIJIJIANXINZENG2WANYIZIJIN，YINGXIANGJIJIANTOUZIZENGSUZENGZHANG10%ZUOYOU。KAOLVDAODICHANTOUZI5%DEJIANLIANGHEJIJIANTOUZI10%DEZENGLIANGFUDU，YUJIQUANNIANLUOWENGANGHAOGANGXUQIUTONGBICHIPINGZHUANGTAI，BINGQIEYIJIDUYIQINGYINGXIANG，XIAYOUYIDUTINGGONG，XIABANNIANCUNZAIGANGONGCHONGYEJIXUQIU，XIABANNIANHAOGANGLIANGHUOQIANGYUSHANGBANNIAN。

3.LIRUN：DIANLUCHENGBENDUIJIAGEYOUZHICHENG

JINNIANDUNGANGLIRUNMINGXIANSHOULIAN，DANGQIANZHANGLIUCHENGLUOWENDUNGANGLIRUN150YUANZUOYOU，REYADUNGANGLIRUN300YUANZUOYOU，JIEHEJINNIANTIEKUANGSHIGONGJIPIANSONGDEQINGKUANG，YUJIZHANGLIUCHENGDUNGANGLIRUNJIXUSHOULIANDEKONGJIANBUDA，TONGSHIDIEJIAHUANBAOXIANCHANHUANJINGKUANSONG，ZHANGLIUCHENGZHUDONGJIANCHANDEKONGJIANBUDA。GONGJIDUANZHUYAOBIANHUASHIZHANGCAIHEBANCAICHANLIANGQIEHUAN，YIJIDUANLIUCHENGDIANLUDUIZHANGCAICHANLIANGDEYINGXIANG。JINNIANFEIGANGJIAGEJIANTING，DIANLUCHENGBENGAOQI，BUFENQUYUDIANLUKUISUN，7YUEKAISHIDIANLUKAIGONGJIUYOUXIAXINGQUSHI，DIANLUCHENGBENDUICHENGCAIJIAGEYOUZHICHENG。

4.ZONGJIE：GANGJIAGUZHIZHONGXING，FENGHUIDIAOZUODUOWEIZHU

1-5YUECUGANGCHANLIANGLEIJITONGBIZENGZHANG1.9%，KAOLVDAO6YUEGAOLUKAIGONGJIANDING，DIANLUKAISHIJIANCHAN，7-8YUEFENCHANLIANGJIANGCHENGXIANJIJIEXINGXIAJIANG，YUJIQUANNIANCHANLIANGBAOCHIZHENGZENGZHANG，DANZENGSUDIYUQUNIAN。ERXUQIUDUANJIEHEDICHANHEJIJIANDEQINGKUANG，DICHANTOUZIZENGSUXIAHUA，DANJIJIANXIABANNIANHAIYOUSHANGSHENGKONGJIAN，ZONGHEKANQUANNIANHAOGANGLIANGJIANGTONGBICHIPING，GANGCAIQUANNIANGONGXURUOPINGHENG。DANGQIANZHANGCAIDUNGANGLIRUN4%，BANCAIDUNGANGLIRUN8%，TONGSHIPANMIANYUXIANHUOJIEJINPINGSHUI，SUIRANGANGJIADANGQIANKUCUNYALIGAOYUQUNIAN，DANCHENGBENZHICHENGXIA，JIXUXIADIEKONGJIANYOUXIAN，WOMENRENWEIDANGQIANGANGJIAJIAGEGUZHIZHONGXING，YUJIXIABANNIANBODONGQUJIANZAI3200-4000YUAN。KAOLVDAOXUQIUZOURUOHEGAOKUCUNSHISHISHICHANGYUQI，ZHIYAOXIANSHIBIYUQIHAO，PANMIANDOUJIANGTIZHENSHANGXING，DIEJIAYUANYUETIESHUIBULIYUKONGTOUDUIXIANLIRUN，SUOYICAOZUOSHANGJIANYIFENGHUIDIAOZUODUOWEIZHU。（GUANGFAQIHUO）